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Dr. Grant Branstator, Climate Change and Natural Modes of Atmospheric Variability
Ponedeljkov fizikalni kolokvij
IZJEMOMA v petek, 21. 11. 2008 ob 14.15 v predavalnici F2, FMF UL, Jadranska 19, Ljubljana
Pred predavanjem vse udeležence vabimo na čaj.
Povzetek:
Climate Change and Natural Modes of Atmospheric Variability
Dr. Grant Branstator, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
In order to understand the results of climate change experiments so that one can judge their reliability, one would like to know what factors influence the structure of regional anomalies induced by changes in the external forcing of the climate system. Many scientists believe that regional anomalies will have a structure that is similar to one or a few of the ‘natural modes' of the atmosphere. Natural modes are geographical patterns of variability that are prominent in the fluctuations that the atmosphere undergoes even when its forcing is held constant. In this presentation we described two competing hypotheses for why there should be such a correspondence between forced and intrinsic atmospheric variability. Then we test the ability of the two hypotheses to explain the results of an ensemble of climate change experiments that have been produced by a comprehensive numerical model of the climate system.