The WHO says new studies indicate that up to 230 million people may have had coronavirus and survived – more than ninety times more than the current official tally of 2.5 million confirmed cases.
www.rt.com
ORLY?
Se bo strokovnjakom koncno posvetilo?
I said I rest my case, but lets try again...
As usual selektivno branje (RT-jevih clankov):
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But a lot of other new research would seem to conflict with the message coming from the WHO. A
study released last week by Stanford University found that the Covid-19 infection rate among California residents
is likely far higher than has been reported,
perhaps “50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.” And another US
study found that nearly one in three residents of Chelsea, Massachusetts, had antibodies.
Most interesting of all is a new
study from Sweden, showing that at least 11 out of 100 people in the Stockholm area had antibodies. The scientists
believe the true number to be even higher, as the test gives some false negatives. For the Swedes, many people having had the virus already is good news, especially considering their more laissez-faire approach to controlling its spread. And as their death toll from the virus ticked over 1,700 today, the
trends there seem to
suggest a flattening of the curve.
The current coronavirus policies of most countries were put in place with the intention of slowing or stopping the spread of a highly dangerous virus that threatened to overwhelm healthcare systems. However, if the WHO is correct, and hundreds of millions of people worldwide have already been infected, many of them without symptoms, then that may be a lost cause. The coronavirus may already be too widespread for lockdowns to stamp it out.
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V istem clanku pa popolnoma ignoriramo:
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These figures do, however, deal a blow to those in the “herd immunity” camp, who believe that the best path to ending the crisis is to reach a point where enough members of a population are immune to the virus that it cannot spread enough to reach those who are not immune. Estimates for what that point would be range from 60-90 percent. If the WHO’s figure of 2-3 percent is accurate, then we are still a long way away from herd immunity.
But antibody testing is by no means a watertight system. Early
evidence has suggested that antibody tests are not necessarily reliable, implying that many
people who test positive for antibodies are not necessarily immune to reinfection. (And this would imply that the number of people who have already been infected would be even higher than 260 million globally.)
Furthermore, as we still know so little about the novel coronavirus, it is not impossible that what we think are antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 are, in fact,
the result of infection by other coronaviruses, such as the common cold or strains hitherto undetected.
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Nato ponovno usmerimo na (ignorirane) besede prof.Petrovca iz intervijua
27.3. zakaj pri zajezitvi (vzpenjaju krivulje bolezni) testiranje protiteles nima vrednosti:
"Ena velikih enigm in težav, ki jo imamo z obvladovanjem epidemije, so ravno ljudje, ki ne kažejo simptomov, virus pa v svojih dihalih razmnožujejo in so zgolj prenašalci na druge. Upajmo, da je ta odstotek čim manjši," pravi Miroslav Petrovec.
www.rtvslo.si
Ali je mogoče na podlagi odkrivanja protiteles določiti, ali smo bolezen že preboleli? Ali vsebnost protiteles pomeni, da je človek imun?
Zelo vroče vprašanje ne samo v laični javnosti, ampak tudi v strokovni. V diagnostiki, ki jo trenutno uporabljamo za identifikacijo virusnih okužb dihal, dokazovanje protiteles nima posebne diagnostične vrednosti. Bolni morate biti namreč kar nekaj dni, preden se protitelesa razvijejo. Nemški znanstveniki so ugotovili, da vsi ljudje ne razvijejo t. i. nevtralizacijskih protiteles, ki so bistvena ali celo pogoj, da bomo proti temu virusu odporni. Poleg tega imajo zaradi svoje dolge evolucije s človekom koronavirusi posebne mehanizme, ki precej učinkovito preprečujejo dober imunski odgovor, zlasti ta spominski odgovor, ki ga potrebujemo, da v naslednjih srečanjih s tem virusom odreagiramo na tak način, da se ne bomo več okužili. Zgolj za primer, sam sem letos prebolel že tri okužbe s koronaviorusi, dvakrat celo z istim tipom. Kaj nam to pove? Pove nam, da virus učinkovito zavre zaščitno imunost. In smo mu lahko čez nekaj mesecev spet priča. In že imamo preliminarne podatke, ki kažejo, da se tudi pri novem koronavirusu morda lahko pričakuje, česar se pa sam osebno zares bojim, da bo ostal dovolj velik del populacije, ki morda ne bo imun, četudi je to virusno okužbo prebolel. To je nekaj, česar ne poznamo pri noricah, vodenih kozah. Če jih prebolimo, smo do konca življenja odporni proti njim. Če prebolimo ošpice, načeloma ne bomo nikoli več dobili ošpic. Pri koronavirusu si tega ta trenutek res ne bi upal trditi.
Ali je torej mogoče dokazati protitelesa? Pri dokazovanju protiteles moramo biti izredno previdni. Predstavljajmo si virus kot kroglo z različnimi paličicami na površini. Te paličice so, denimo, med sedmimi različnimi koronavirusi različne. Pa reciva, da imamo modre, rumene in rdeče. In reciva, da se koronavirusi med sabo razlikujejo samo v modrih. Nekateri imajo rumene in rdeče, imajo pa vmes morda namesto modrih zelene. Ko se okužimo, se proti vsem tem barvam palčk ustvarijo različna protitelesa. In ko se testiramo, in če imamo v testu cel virus, lahko pride do navzkrižne reaktivnosti. Ustvarimo namreč protitelesa proti vsem tem različnim proteinom na površini virusa in zelo se bojim, da bo tak test, to poznamo iz drugih okužb, lahko lažno prepoznal protitelesa proti tistim koronavirusom, ki smo jim izpostavljeni ves čas. Tako da tu je treba biti zelo previden. Testi prihajajo, ki so usmerjeni samo na palčke, na površinske beljakovine, ki so specifične za novi koronavirus, ampak tu dejansko nimamo dovolj podatkov. Jaz sem pri napovedih zelo previden. Iz Kitajske prihaja zdaj ogromno nekih testerjev. Vsak dan dobivam po deset vprašanj, zakaj jih ne uporabljamo, češ da je to hitra metoda. Jasno bom povedal zdaj pred vsemi na Prvem programu Radia Slovenija, da gre za testerje, ki so testirani na 20 pozitivnih bolnikih. To je nesmisel. Potrebujemo resne študije, resne podatke na večjem številu bolnikov. V prihodnosti pričakujemo test, ki bo lahko povedal, ali smo to preboleli ali ne.
siol.net
