Napetost v Ukrajini - Krimu
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Putin’s Coup
How the Russian leader used the Ukraine crisis to consolidate his dictatorship.
“Putin has taken the shortcut to popularity. He realized that moving towards reform involved cutting through and damaging the interests of too many relevant people who his power depends on. He saw this as much too risky. But in reality his greatest fear is being [the last Soviet leader, Mikhail] Gorbachev. He sees Gorbachev as a fool because he was taken in by the West and then thrown under the bus. And there is some truth in that.”
...
According to an adviser to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Moscow intends to slowly move the finance of state companies and political players away from London, Zurich and Frankfurt toward Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore. “We think we can match what we lose from the West with what China offers,” said the adviser.
European leaders find this fantastical. According to one Cameron adviser, the inner circle of the British government sees Russia’s eastern pivot as delusional. They believe that it will take decades to rebuild an entire oil and gas infrastructure oriented toward Europe and that Chinese banks are in no position to replace Western loans. “The Chinese cannot and will not give them this money,” said the adviser.
And indeed, there has been little by way of new Chinese loans toward Russian companies unable to leverage in the West. As of early September the leading Chinese state banks – the Bank of China, the Chinese Construction Bank and the International and Commercial Bank of China had lending portfolios of only $170 million in Russia. This is nothing compared to $134 billion in foreign debts Russian banks and corporations must repay to mostly American and European banks before the end of 2015.
“What we are hearing from the Chinese is an extremely cynical view of Russia,” says Bildt, “and what the Chinese can do with them. They arrive in Beijing and there is great fanfare but there is very little reality to many of these handshakes. They say we have indeed signed some contracts but this will take a very long time and we don’t even believe much of it will really happen.”
...
The buildup to war actually began as early as 2008, according to Sikorski. He says Russian intentions were becoming transparent by the time of the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest. “This is where [Putin] gave his extraordinary speech saying Ukraine was an artificial country and the greater part of these lands historically belonged to Russia.” At the summit the Kremlin warned it would respond militarily to moves by Ukraine or Georgia to join the NATO alliance: months later Russian forces seized on a provocation from Tbilisi and invaded Georgia.
Ukrainian intelligence points to Russian operatives beginning to move into Crimea from 2012 and possibly even 2010. There have also been reports of Kremlin operatives openly discussing a project to annex the territory beginning in the summer of 2013. Sikorski says Russian intentions toward Crimea first began to alarm him in 2011 and 2012, when Putin began visiting the festivals of Russian nationalist biker gangs in the peninsula. However it was not until the summer of 2013 that alarm bells began to ring inside the Polish Foreign Ministry.
“We learned Russia ran calculations on what provinces would be profitable to grab,” says Sikorski, who claims that Poland became aware the Kremlin had calculated it would be profitable to annex Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions, while the assessing that the Donbass area currently controlled by Putin’s rebels would not, on its own, not be profitable to incorporate into Russia.
“By that time they were already doing calculations about how to seize Crimea as a way of blackmailing Viktor Yanukovych,” says Sikorski, “I know from my conversations and meeting with Yanukovych that he wanted to get the [European Union-Ukraine] Association Agreement. But in November 2013 something happened, something snapped. Based on our conversations, my sense is that it was something Putin told him in Sochi. I think that Putin had kompromat [blackmail material] on Yanukovych: we now know there was a weekly, biweekly truck taking out the cash [stolen from the Ukrainian budget] in a cash transfer. And I think he told him: ‘Don’t sign the Association Agreement; otherwise we’ll seize Crimea.’ That’s why he cracked.”
Since then, Russia has attempted to involve Poland in the invasion of Ukraine, just as if it were a post-modern re-run of the historic partitions of Poland. “He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine,” says Sikorski. “Putin wants Poland to commit troops to Ukraine. These were the signals they sent us. … We have known how they think for years. We have known this is what they think for years. This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, [soon to be President of the European Council] when he visited Moscow. He went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don’t we just sort it out together. Luckily Tusk didn’t answer. He knew he was being recorded.”
...
“What I fear,” says Sikorski, “is that the Russians simply cannot accept the existence of Ukraine as a nation. They cannot admit that a separate nation exists. And if they want to go head to head against Ukrainian nationalism, well, then be my guest. Then Russia will learn that Ukraine is really a nation and face a situation of 20 years of partisan war. The Russians could grab the entire territory of Novorossiya easily, but they will have a rump Ukraine arming her, supplying her with weapons, seen by the whole world as the real Ukraine, with a sizable amount of the population supporting the real Ukraine. They could win the battle. But to hold down this enormous territory would require a force of 200,000 to 300,000 troops and a 10-year commitment. And they could never sustain it without permanent, national mobilization.”
...
“Should it go decisively below $80 a barrel and stay there for two years he’s in trouble,” warns Sikorski. “But what’s bad for him is not necessarily good for us. He’s a gambler. And he’s got a lowered sense of danger. He’ll take these huge gambles because the real danger for Putin is his own life. He can’t let go. He can’t leave the Kremlin. Once you’ve spilt blood, once you’ve had apartment bombings, once you’ve sent death squads abroad, once you’ve had Georgia, Ukraine, all these mothers, and all the bodies of soldiers being disposed of from secret wars… You can’t just let go.”
How the Russian leader used the Ukraine crisis to consolidate his dictatorship.
“Putin has taken the shortcut to popularity. He realized that moving towards reform involved cutting through and damaging the interests of too many relevant people who his power depends on. He saw this as much too risky. But in reality his greatest fear is being [the last Soviet leader, Mikhail] Gorbachev. He sees Gorbachev as a fool because he was taken in by the West and then thrown under the bus. And there is some truth in that.”
...
According to an adviser to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Moscow intends to slowly move the finance of state companies and political players away from London, Zurich and Frankfurt toward Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore. “We think we can match what we lose from the West with what China offers,” said the adviser.
European leaders find this fantastical. According to one Cameron adviser, the inner circle of the British government sees Russia’s eastern pivot as delusional. They believe that it will take decades to rebuild an entire oil and gas infrastructure oriented toward Europe and that Chinese banks are in no position to replace Western loans. “The Chinese cannot and will not give them this money,” said the adviser.
And indeed, there has been little by way of new Chinese loans toward Russian companies unable to leverage in the West. As of early September the leading Chinese state banks – the Bank of China, the Chinese Construction Bank and the International and Commercial Bank of China had lending portfolios of only $170 million in Russia. This is nothing compared to $134 billion in foreign debts Russian banks and corporations must repay to mostly American and European banks before the end of 2015.
“What we are hearing from the Chinese is an extremely cynical view of Russia,” says Bildt, “and what the Chinese can do with them. They arrive in Beijing and there is great fanfare but there is very little reality to many of these handshakes. They say we have indeed signed some contracts but this will take a very long time and we don’t even believe much of it will really happen.”
...
The buildup to war actually began as early as 2008, according to Sikorski. He says Russian intentions were becoming transparent by the time of the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest. “This is where [Putin] gave his extraordinary speech saying Ukraine was an artificial country and the greater part of these lands historically belonged to Russia.” At the summit the Kremlin warned it would respond militarily to moves by Ukraine or Georgia to join the NATO alliance: months later Russian forces seized on a provocation from Tbilisi and invaded Georgia.
Ukrainian intelligence points to Russian operatives beginning to move into Crimea from 2012 and possibly even 2010. There have also been reports of Kremlin operatives openly discussing a project to annex the territory beginning in the summer of 2013. Sikorski says Russian intentions toward Crimea first began to alarm him in 2011 and 2012, when Putin began visiting the festivals of Russian nationalist biker gangs in the peninsula. However it was not until the summer of 2013 that alarm bells began to ring inside the Polish Foreign Ministry.
“We learned Russia ran calculations on what provinces would be profitable to grab,” says Sikorski, who claims that Poland became aware the Kremlin had calculated it would be profitable to annex Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions, while the assessing that the Donbass area currently controlled by Putin’s rebels would not, on its own, not be profitable to incorporate into Russia.
“By that time they were already doing calculations about how to seize Crimea as a way of blackmailing Viktor Yanukovych,” says Sikorski, “I know from my conversations and meeting with Yanukovych that he wanted to get the [European Union-Ukraine] Association Agreement. But in November 2013 something happened, something snapped. Based on our conversations, my sense is that it was something Putin told him in Sochi. I think that Putin had kompromat [blackmail material] on Yanukovych: we now know there was a weekly, biweekly truck taking out the cash [stolen from the Ukrainian budget] in a cash transfer. And I think he told him: ‘Don’t sign the Association Agreement; otherwise we’ll seize Crimea.’ That’s why he cracked.”
Since then, Russia has attempted to involve Poland in the invasion of Ukraine, just as if it were a post-modern re-run of the historic partitions of Poland. “He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine,” says Sikorski. “Putin wants Poland to commit troops to Ukraine. These were the signals they sent us. … We have known how they think for years. We have known this is what they think for years. This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, [soon to be President of the European Council] when he visited Moscow. He went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don’t we just sort it out together. Luckily Tusk didn’t answer. He knew he was being recorded.”
...
“What I fear,” says Sikorski, “is that the Russians simply cannot accept the existence of Ukraine as a nation. They cannot admit that a separate nation exists. And if they want to go head to head against Ukrainian nationalism, well, then be my guest. Then Russia will learn that Ukraine is really a nation and face a situation of 20 years of partisan war. The Russians could grab the entire territory of Novorossiya easily, but they will have a rump Ukraine arming her, supplying her with weapons, seen by the whole world as the real Ukraine, with a sizable amount of the population supporting the real Ukraine. They could win the battle. But to hold down this enormous territory would require a force of 200,000 to 300,000 troops and a 10-year commitment. And they could never sustain it without permanent, national mobilization.”
...
“Should it go decisively below $80 a barrel and stay there for two years he’s in trouble,” warns Sikorski. “But what’s bad for him is not necessarily good for us. He’s a gambler. And he’s got a lowered sense of danger. He’ll take these huge gambles because the real danger for Putin is his own life. He can’t let go. He can’t leave the Kremlin. Once you’ve spilt blood, once you’ve had apartment bombings, once you’ve sent death squads abroad, once you’ve had Georgia, Ukraine, all these mothers, and all the bodies of soldiers being disposed of from secret wars… You can’t just let go.”
Neuradni podatki o mrtvih rusih na vzhodu ukrajine: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1489768301287961
Glede ljudi ne vem če je res, blizu je sigurno, glede tehnike pa mislim da je kar točno, to se vsaj lahko prešteje.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KGJN13Xzfc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KGJN13Xzfc
Porošenko je enkrat dejal, da je 60% težke tehnike, ki so jo poslali na fronto uničene. Izgube so velike, vseeno pa ne morejo bit tako velike.
Pri videu imaš med komentarji link na galerijo. Ukrajinci po vsem vestno rišejo bele črte, za identifikacijo. Pri požganih vozilih, ki jih je veliko, se jih na žalost ne vidi.
Najbolj zanimiv del je na koncu, pri izgubah ljudskih republik.
4x uničen T-72B3. Smo že imeli debato o njih
Ruska vojska se je brez dvoma nahajala na teritoriju Ukrajine.
Pri videu imaš med komentarji link na galerijo. Ukrajinci po vsem vestno rišejo bele črte, za identifikacijo. Pri požganih vozilih, ki jih je veliko, se jih na žalost ne vidi.
Najbolj zanimiv del je na koncu, pri izgubah ljudskih republik.
4x uničen T-72B3. Smo že imeli debato o njih
Ruska vojska se je brez dvoma nahajala na teritoriju Ukrajine.
Pac man, jaz ne vem če so številke prave, sigurno pa imajo ogromne izgube. Zelo zgovorna pa je tista galerija. Je pa lažje delat slike separatistom o opremi ki so jo pustili kijevčani na novoruskem teritoriju, kot pa kijevčanom hodit slikat na novoruski teritorij o škodi ki so jo naredili.
Sem pač prilepl video iz YT. Zdel se mi je zanimiv.
Sem pač prilepl video iz YT. Zdel se mi je zanimiv.
Russia has some 'splainin' to do:
Julija so GRAD- i leteli iz Rusije v Ukrajino.
Iztrelišče : 47°38'14.16"N 38°28'9.52"E
Cilj: 47°45'38.89"N 38°30'59.07"E
Verjetno se rabi Google earth, maps ni OK.
P.S.
Ruska artilerija 1. avgusta:
47°36'3.11"N 38°35'47.63"E
Julija so GRAD- i leteli iz Rusije v Ukrajino.
Iztrelišče : 47°38'14.16"N 38°28'9.52"E
Cilj: 47°45'38.89"N 38°30'59.07"E
Verjetno se rabi Google earth, maps ni OK.
P.S.
Ruska artilerija 1. avgusta:
47°36'3.11"N 38°35'47.63"E
Nazadnje urejeno:
Ma dej pust tega plačanca.
Pač ne mara Rusov in rad leze v rit amerikancem, zato objavlja vse sorte linke zahodnih medijev.
Aktiven je na večih forumih in povsod zagovarja nato/usa argumente. če se ti da brezplačno lutat po netu in iskat vse sorte vojno propagando brezplačno... ne vem no, meni se to ne bi dalo. Oziroma, bi se mi to zdelo trapasto in stran metanje cajta in živcev. Če pa bi mi kdo plačal... jah... pol pa.
To je moje mnenje. Lahko je pravilno, lahko napačno, kdo bi vedel. Kot velja za vsa mnenja na netu, vklučno z mnenji mnenjskih voditeljev v gestapu, ups, nemški obveščevalni, ali cii, mi5,6, kgv, fsb, mossad in kar je še teh terorističnih otganizacij.
Pač ne mara Rusov in rad leze v rit amerikancem, zato objavlja vse sorte linke zahodnih medijev.
Aktiven je na večih forumih in povsod zagovarja nato/usa argumente. če se ti da brezplačno lutat po netu in iskat vse sorte vojno propagando brezplačno... ne vem no, meni se to ne bi dalo. Oziroma, bi se mi to zdelo trapasto in stran metanje cajta in živcev. Če pa bi mi kdo plačal... jah... pol pa.
To je moje mnenje. Lahko je pravilno, lahko napačno, kdo bi vedel. Kot velja za vsa mnenja na netu, vklučno z mnenji mnenjskih voditeljev v gestapu, ups, nemški obveščevalni, ali cii, mi5,6, kgv, fsb, mossad in kar je še teh terorističnih otganizacij.
Um, ne?
Pač je bila sreča in je satelit letel nad področjem ravno, ko je bila artilerija na mestu. Donetsk je sicer precej dobro pokrit, zadnje čase nekje 2x mesečno. Najnovejše fotografije so s 3. septembra.
Mimogrede, nad Kobane-jem jim je uspelo ujet B-1B bombnik. Ni (še) na Google earth.
Pač je bila sreča in je satelit letel nad področjem ravno, ko je bila artilerija na mestu. Donetsk je sicer precej dobro pokrit, zadnje čase nekje 2x mesečno. Najnovejše fotografije so s 3. septembra.
Mimogrede, nad Kobane-jem jim je uspelo ujet B-1B bombnik. Ni (še) na Google earth.
Zelo verjetno je bil cilj GRADov baza 72. motorizirane brigade ukrajinske vojske. Par vozil se da na Google earth opazit po poljih, večina jih je ob gozdu.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=767_1406381944
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=947_1409572760
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=df2_1406701546
Na enem posnetku me moti hrib, ne vem, kam ga dat.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=947_1409572760
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=df2_1406701546
Na enem posnetku me moti hrib, ne vem, kam ga dat.
Njemački novinar tvrdi kako vodeæi europski mediji moraju izvještavati pristrano pod pritiskom CIA-e
To sicer vemo ze dolgo, sam da so se Nemci oglasli..
To sicer vemo ze dolgo, sam da so se Nemci oglasli..