100 tisoč cepljenih, najvišja učnikovtost je okoli 92 % (Pfizer). Torej se jih lahko cca 8.000 spet okuži. Glede na to, da je v povprečju aktivno okuženih pol odstotka ljudi (10.000 od 2 milijona), torej vsaj 40 okuženih cepljenih ta hip.
Ko omenjaš učinkovitost, obstaja absolutna in relativna učinkovitost, 'oglaševana' številka 92% je relativna učinkovitost, pobrana iz študije proizvajalca.
In NE pomeni to, kar pišeš naprej o številkah.Farmacevtska 'matematika' je ena bolj čudna reč.
Za Pfizer/Biontech oboje
www.bmj.com
Rapid Response:
Covid-19 vaccine candidate is unimpressive: NNTV is around 256
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4347/rr-4
Important editorial notice for readers: This is a rapid response (online comment by a third party) and not an article in The BMJ. It is attributed in a misleading way on certain websites and social media. The Editor, 14/01/2021.
Dear Editor
Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them……
Das RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. ist eine außeruniversitäre Einrichtung für wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Forschung mit Sitz in Essen.
tinyurl.com
The vaccine is "90 percent effective"
sem dal v tinyurl obliko, drugače forum po svoje (napačno) spreminja url