Napetost v Ukrajini - Krimu

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World oil producers have put oil prices into a free fall, refusing to pare back global supplies in the hopes that low prices will derail the fracking-backed production boom in the U.S. and preserve OPEC's power over world energy markets.

But global analysts are skeptical that the move will work.

The basic reason: Prices remain high enough to keep pumping. "Looking out there, it seems like there's a huge amount of oil that can be produced at $60, $70 per barrel," said Michael Lynch, president of consulting firm Strategic Energy and Economic Research, referring to the prices for Brent crude oil, a global reference point.
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In an analysis this week, Citigroup noted that breakeven costs for projects in the U.S. regions with shale oil—the stuff unlocked through fracking—are almost all below $70 in Brent prices, sometimes much lower.

To drill down a bit further, Citi's "base case" projects that if Brent prices stayed in the $75-$85 range, with WTI about $10 lower, "minimal" impacts to shale are expected. Under a separate scenario, with prices collapsing further and WTI around $60, near-term production growth would slow, but production would still be 500,000 barrels per day higher next year.

But the longer-term production outlook could be affected if global prices keep slumping. "Cash flow and planned [capital expenditures] would take a hit but this would be more impactful for 2016-and-beyond production," Citi's analysis states.

The energy consulting firm IHS, in a report last month, said that 80 percent of new production from shale is economic for companies with WTI prices between $50 and $69 per barrel.

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Since 2008, U.S oil production has risen from about 5 million barrels a day to more than 9 million—an 80% increase.
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Tight oil has produced most of the growth in the global supply in recent years, and helped lead to the current glut. Experts have said that U.S. tight oil needs to sell at $85 or $90 a barrel to be profitable. With oil recently trading at $65, it looks like the industry is in peril.

The experts are right—up to a point. That $90 figure applies only to less than 20% of all “tight” oil fields. Says Jim Burkhard, the head of oil market research at IHS, a highly-respected industry research firm: “There’s a spectrum of break-even costs. Wells can perform differently in the same field.” A new study by IHS concludes that about 80% of the tight oil estimated to be pumped next year will still be profitable at between $50 and $69 a barrel.
Producers, it turns out, have gotten more efficient in designing and operating their fracking wells. Burkhard points to two factors at play. One is an increase in productivity due to a new technology called “super fracking,” where drillers pump a lot more sand into their wells when they fracture the oil shale. Productivity at some super-fracking wells has risen from 400 barrels a day to 600, lowering the break-even cost. The other factor is the oil service industries. Says Burkhard: “They’ve built up capacity over the past years. If there’s a decline in drilling due to low oil prices, we’ll see excess oil-drilling capacity and that puts downward pressure on the cost of producing tight oil.”

Lower oil prices, however, will slow the rate of growth of tight oil as energy companies grapple with market uncertainty and volatility. While today’s $65 a barrel might seem low, remember that in early 1980s, new production from the North Sea, Alaska’s North Slope, and Mexico drove prices down to $10 a barrel. And from the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude was less than $25.

With oil prices dropping, IHS estimates the growth in U.S. tight oil production will slow next year to 700,000 barrels a day, down from million a day in 2014. (That estimate is based on a $77 a barrel. If oil goes to $60 next year that 700,000 projection will be cut in half to 350,000.) Even so, the U.S. will still be adding a significant amount of new oil to a global market where demand is weakening. That makes any price spike— short of a blow-up in the Middle East or OPEC suddenly getting its act together—unlikely.

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Days after Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called for the homes of Islamic militants' families to be razed to the ground following a large-scale attack on Grozny, unidentified individuals in masks descended on a small village with ties to the militants and set four homes on fire, a news report said Tuesday.
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"At first we thought they had come to conduct searches, but these people just started pouring gasoline on the house. They held us. They wouldn't let us get anything [from the house] or put out the fire," said one resident who spoke to Slon.ru on condition of anonymity.
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"I officially declare that the time when parents don't answer for the actions of their sons or daughters has ended. … If a militant in Chechnya murders a policeman or another person, the family of the militant will immediately be deported from Chechnya without the right to return, and their home will be torn down to the ground," Kadyrov wrote.

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The March 1996 United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) report said:

It is reported that a massacre of over 100 people, mainly civilians, occurred between 7 and 8 April 1995 in the village of Samashki, in the west of Chechnya. According to the accounts of 128 eye-witnesses, Federal soldiers deliberately and arbitrarily attacked civilians and civilian dwellings in Samashki by shooting residents and burning houses with flame-throwers. The majority of the witnesses reported that many OMON troops were drunk or under the influence of drugs. They wantonly opened fire or threw grenades into basements where residents, mostly women, elderly persons and children, had been hiding.[7]

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), this was the most notorious civilian massacre of the First Chechen War.[3] The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced that approx. 250 civilians were killed.[8] According to Amnesty International[9] and HRW more than 250 people were killed, while the elders of Samashki stated that up to 300 residents were killed during the attack.[4]

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The Novye Aldi massacre was a notorious crime in which Russian federal forces summarily executed dozens of people in the Novye Aldi (Aldy) suburb of Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, in the course of a "mopping-up" (zachistka) operation conducted there on February 5, 2000, soon after the end of the battle for the city. As a result of a deadly rampage by the special police forces at least 60[1] and up to 82[2] local civilians were killed and at least six women were raped. Numerous houses were also burned and civilian property was stolen in an organized manner.[3]

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The initial Russian investigations, including one which established the operation was undertaken by OMON units from the city of St. Petersburg and Ryazan province, had been accompanied by indignant public denial. Typical of this was the Russian military's reaction on February 24 to HRW's preliminary report on the killings, when a Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman declared that "these assertions are nothing but a concoction not supported by fact or any proof ... [and] should be seen as a provocation whose goal is to discredit the federal forces' operation against the terrorists in Chechnya".
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In spite of the weight of evidence and a host of enquiries by foreign and Russian journalists and by human rights organisations, no official investigation of the crime has ever been completed. For several years no-one had been charged in connection with the incident.[4] This is not considered unusual, as a large number of civilians had been extrajudicially executed by federal forces in the course of the Chechen conflict and yet very few of the perpetrators have been brought to trial.[8] Only in 2005 was one OMON officer, Sergei Babin, charged with the murder of an elderly resident of Aldi; however he then went into hiding and the case against him was suspended.

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The killings occurred between late December 1999 and mid-January 2000, during the heavy fighting for the city. Most of the 38 victims were women and elderly men, and all appear to have been deliberately shot by Russian soldiers at close range. More than a dozen additional civilians may also have been murdered in the district; in addition, six men from Staropromyslovsky City District who were last seen in Russian custody "disappeared" during this same period and remain unaccounted for.[2]

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The Alkhan-Yurt massacre was the December 1999 incident in the village of Alkhan-Yurt near the Chechen capital Grozny involving Russian troops under command of General Vladimir Shamanov. The villagers claimed approximately 41 civilians were killed in the spree, while the human rights groups confirmed and documented 17 incidents of murder and three incidents of rape.

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), it was not an isolated incident, as Russian troops have been systematically looting villages and towns under their control.
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Initially, the Russian Defence Ministry denied that anything happened in the village of Alkhan-Yurt. However, when Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Koshman and a committee of Russian generals inspected the village, the officials discovered several caches of goods looted by Russian soldiers, including some splattered with blood. In addition, one drunken soldier reportedly even threatened to "shoot" Koshman. The officials promised an investigation, which was soon closed by the military "for lack of evidence of a crime."

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According to the Russian human rights group Memorial, "by the most modest estimations", the overall number of those having passed through the established and ad hoc "filtration points" reaches at least 200,000 people (out of Chechnya's population of less than one million), of whom "practically all" have been subjected to beatings and torture, and some were summarily executed. According to Memorial, the purpose of the "filtration" system in Chechnya, besides being part of the general state terror system for suppression and intimidation of the population, was to create a network of informers through the enforced recruitation, and was characterised by its non-selectivity, that is by arbitrary arrests and mass detentions of innocent people.
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In 2006, Russia's human rights groups produced a documentary evidence of a secret torture center in the basement of a former school for deaf children in Oktyabrsokye district of Grozny, which they alleged had been used by a unit of the Russian special police OMON that had been stationed nearby during the early 2000s to hold, torture and kill hundreds of people, whose bodies were then dumped through Chechnya (the unit's member Sergei Lapin has been convicted in 2005 of torturing the Chechen student Zelimkhan Murdalov, one of the "disappeared" who remains unaccounted for[4]). The activists said they collected the evidence just in time before building housing the cellar has since been demolished in an apparent crude cover-up attempt.[5]

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The Komsomolskoye massacre occurred following the Battle of Komsomolskoye (Chechen: Saadi-Kotar) during the Second Chechen War in March 2000. A prominent feature in the incident was the fate of a group of about 72 Chechen combatants who had surrendered on 20 March on a Russian public promise of amnesty, but had almost all either died or "disappeared" shortly after they were detained.
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An amateur video dated 21 March 2000, was uncovered and released in 2004 by Anna Politkovskaya, an investigative journalist for Novaya Gazeta. In it, a grainy black-and-white footage shows a large group of naked and half-naked Chechen prisoners who had accepted the Russian offer of amnesty, most of them injured; the captives shown are mostly men and adolescent boys, many of them having visible untreated wounds and some with missing limbs. There were two women, who, unlike the men do not show signs of beating but are separated and led away after exiting the truck. While moving from one crowded prison truck to another, the prisoners are physically abused by spetsnaz (special forces) of the Russian Ministry of Justice. At the end of the footage, some of the captives are ordered to unload their comrades who have already died during the transport. Several naked corpses are then dragged from the truck and placed in heap next to the railway tracks.[7] According to Politkovskaya, making the video public was the idea of the Russian junior officer who recorded it, as he hoped it would help free him from "a nightmare which continues to haunt him." For her, this video recalled "only one image, movies from the Nazi concentration camps".[8]

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Ameriška naftna podjetja že zdaj zapirajo fracking črpališča, ker delajo z izgubo.

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Sploh ne navijam. Še Putin sam je opozoril na to, da Rusija ne bo edina, ki bo trpela nizko ceno.

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