Zlato / Kitajska

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First of all, I'll talk a little bit about silver. They're following the gold pattern here in China which is average Chinese citizens here now can buy silver in their bank account. So, you don't need to keep cash in your bank, you can go online and move your cash into silver or you can move it into gold. And that's really what's driving the increase in gold and silver prices here. They started the gold trade in the major commercial banks about three years ago. Silver started last year in August, 2010. But what was really shocking is the numbers that have come out. I mentioned the year over year increases.

But if we look at just one Chinese bank, the ICBC, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, first half of this year they sold over 300 tons of silver. 300 tons is roughly about 10 million ounces. So, this year they'll do roughly 20 million ounces of silver which is roughly 2 percent of all the silver mined in one year.

So, we look at the Chinese banking system just starting these new products in China, this year they could take nine or ten percent of all the silver mined in the world. And these products are just getting started. Two, three, four years from now, the Chinese banks could be selling 20, 30, 40 percent of all the silver mined globally. And that's really why we're seeing huge increases in silver.

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Citat:
Hangzhou, a city here from about two hours away from where I'm at, a very Madoff-type scenario - a typical ponzi scheme - they paid off the old investors with the new money. Long story short, they lost about one billion US dollars, defrauded around 15,000 investors. But it only consisted of a father and two sons, at this fund.

The only difference between these guys and [Bernie] Madoff is that they were quickly all sentenced to death.

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Chinese banks are much smaller, conservatively run. You know, they're not into these derivative products. They're old school banks. Obviously, they have some loan issues but they're working through these issues. A Chinese CEO of a bank might make 150 thousand dollars a year, with no bonus.

You know, you look at Bank of America; they paid 35 percent of their revenue in bonuses in February. And then this month, we find out they're transferring trillions of dollars in toxic debt from [Merril Lynch] into the Bank of America which is FDIC insured. I mean, it's total fraud.

I personally don't invest in any American banks because I will invest in no companies that pay themselves 35 percent of their revenues in bonuses. That's not sustainable in any industry.

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I'm making a prediction that China makes a play for Italy's gold because Italy has 2,500 tons of gold. It's the biggest position in Europe. Why wouldn't China, who's starving for gold bullion with 1,000 tons - they're looking to acquire 5,000 tons to be competitive with the US - why wouldn't China, because they were rumored to be bailing out Greece at some point but, of course, Greece only has 110 tons of Gold, why wouldn't China make a play for Italy's gold and say 'we want that 2,500 tons of gold and in exchange we'll float some kind of lending facility to you'?

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Citat:
You know, the US is actually their second largest trading partner, now only the EU. Exports out of China consist of about four percent of their GDP. So, obviously, if we have a complete dollar collapse and the US goes down, they can't buy anything, everyone's going to suffer. There's no way you can escape that.

As I mentioned, at that time, if the financial system does reboot, China will focus here on the domestic market. The domestic market here is much, much larger than people give it credit for. The Chinese vehicle market is twice as large as the American market. These aren't exports. These are vehicles sold here domestically in China.

Over the short-medium timeline, we will see China continue to increase the Renminbi. I think it's been bad policy on their part to keep it too low for too long. It's encouraged over investment in factories, and it's discouraged the service sector.

In my opinion, the increase in the Renminbi will only help China. China is very reliant on imported commodities. The main cost of production in its Chinese factory is the raw materials most of which are imported. I believe China has only to gain when the Renminbi increases. And as time goes on, they'll realize that more and they'll let the Renminbi appreciate.

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But the reality today, China is almost near full employment. You go to several manufacturing regions of China, you can literally not find workers. And wages here have literally doubled in three years.

I believe the Renminbi's been relatively stable this year because they've taken into a lot of costs in terms of inflation - worker's, salaries, electricity, everything's gone up.

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But, if you're looking at the total macroeconomic situation in China, there's really not much reason to be bearish. And I'll give you reasons. People talk housing bubble; yet 50 percent of the homes in China have been purchased cash up front. The other 50 percent have paid 30 percent down.

So, people look at a slight slowdown in China this year and they come up with all these doomsday scenarios. They forget last year we were growing 10 or 11 percent a year with inflation getting nearly out of control.

China put industrial loans here from five percent last year all the way up to 9 percent this year. So, you're bound to get a slowdown, and it's good that we got a slowdown in China this year.

But as we talk, you know, “ghost cities” is another topic which I find interesting. Americans like to comment on “ghost cities”. But in America, we haven't built infrastructure in two generations. What do we know about infrastructure in China? These “ghost cities” really aren't ghost cities.

Obviously, local governments in some areas like Ordos [City] up in the north may have built too much, but what happens is that these cities are all overcrowded. You have massive urbanization in China now.

In fact, the area where I'm in is an area called the New City. In 18 months, they've built 35 apartment blocks, office buildings, 10 skyscrapers, shopping malls, everything. And it's done in 18 months. So, if you were to look at it, yeah, it looks like a ghost city. But if you wait a year and a half, two years, it's filled up. And all the properties have been sold and there's really no credit bubble to these properties in China. It's very difficult to get loans in China.

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On an industrial loan for your business, you have to sign over your deed to get a loan. And even that, they will come in and they will analyze your plans, assets, equipment, everything. They will only give you a loan up to 30 percent of what they value it at. So, China is not a credit heavy nation. It's very conservative in terms of lending.

As I mentioned, the housing market is another good example. The housing market has basically stopped in terms of transactions. But the prices aren't really dropping. The reason why transactions stopped is they literally tell people they're not allowed to buy more than one house now. And if you're not from Shanghai, you can't buy a Shanghai apartment.

When you put in these kinds of draconian rules to stop people from buying houses, I don't see this as a bear signal.

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Uporabnik ferdo pravi:
Predvsem je dobro prebrati se kaj drugega:
Residential property prices are in freefall in China
Morda pa na Kitajskem vseeno ne bo tako lepo
Glede "ghost" mest pa morda tale link:
http://www.businessinsider.com/black-market-ordos-ghost-city-2011-10?op=1
In ja Kitajska ima polno zaposlenost. Zato ker ima plansko gospodarstvo. Klub temu, da ima srce na levi, mi razum pravi, da to ni najbolj učinkovit model. Še vedno se je končal neuspešno.

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Uporabnik Numy pravi:
Jaz pa video o NLPjih.

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Uporabnik keber pravi:

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Hja, jaz recimo vedno bolj dvomim v neodvisnost in objektivnost zahodnih medijev.

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Saj ne rabiš nobenih medijev, le nekaj zdrave pameti. Megalomanska gradnja novih in novih mest, v katerih živi skoraj nihče, nove avtoceste sredi puščav, kjer ni niti 1000 vozil dnevno in gradnja tisočev kilometrov hitrih prog tudi v najbolj oddaljene konce Kitajske, vse te več deset milijardne investicije, ki še lep čas ne bodo pokrivale stroške gradnje, no, to se ne more končati najbolje. Poleg tega pa je Kitajska ekonomija še vedno več ali manj odvisna od izvoza na Zahod. In če bo zahod resno škripnil (kot kaže), bo Kitajska tudi.

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Uporabnik Diablo pravi:
kaj je to s temi ghost mesti? gradijo za foro?

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Uporabnik keber pravi:
Problem Kitajske je, da je še vedno bolj ali manj odvisna samo od izvoza. Če izvoz pade, škripne tudi kitajsko gospodarstvo.

Pa tudi vse bolj kaže, da se zna globalizacija (beri: selitev raznorazne proizvodnje v Azijo) zabremzati. Namreč Kitajci niso več tako poceni kot včasih (še posebej, če se zahteva dobra kvaliteta) in tudi zahodne vlade bi znale zaradi domačih gospodarskih težav z zakonodajo zabremzati izvoz industrije v poceni države, da bi zmanjšale brezposelnost v domačih državah. Če se bo to zgodilo, zna imeti kitajsko gospodarstvo resne težave, takrat pa bodo gotovo tudi gradbeni, nepremičninski in še kakšni baloni.

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