Recesija 2015-

Citat:
Europe will fall into recession, and we may see a smaller-scale repeat of the 2010-2011 Greek default crisis. GDP growth in the eurozone will turn negative. That will finally give European Central Bank President Mario Draghi the leverage to start the bank’s own “quantitative easing” (buying up to 1 trillion euros in European government bonds). But that won’t be enough to lift the Old Continent out of recession.

It seems likely that the left-wing opposition Syriza will prevail in upcoming parliamentary elections in Greece. That has triggered a big sell-off in European stocks amid reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is open to Greece’s exit from the eurozone. This looks like a well-planned leak, part of a chess game between Merkel and Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras. But firebrand Tsipras already has softened his earlier hard-line positions as he prepares to take power. Expect yet another renegotiated Greek debt deal, not a default or a “Grexit.”

Weak overseas economies and largely ineffectual quantitative easing in Japan and the eurozone along with gradually rising U.S. short-term rates will continue to boost the U.S. dollar. Demand for U.S. Treasuries from domestic and foreign investors will tamp down increases in long-term rates that would normally accompany the Fed’s short-term rate hikes. The greenback’s lingering strength will deepen the secular bear market in energy and commodities; oil prices may hit their lows for this cycle, but will take years to recover. This also may be the year true believers finally throw in the towel on gold.

Plunging oil prices along with economic sanctions will bring key Russian companies to the brink of default and will batter the ruble and Russian stocks even more. The strong dollar and weak commodity prices will pressure other emerging market stocks, currencies and bonds, with perhaps a contagion effect on a smaller scale than 1997-1998. This could lead to a correction in global and U.S. stocks, but not a bear market.

The strength of the dollar and attractiveness of U.S. capital markets will cause U.S. investors, who have shunned U.S. equities under the bad influence of the anything-but-America doom-and-gloomers, to finally realize the error of their ways and pour money back into the U.S. That move, which may have begun in 2014, should help power U.S. stocks still higher.

I do see deeper corrections ahead, and this bull market is definitely getting long in the tooth. So 2015 may have more volatility and more modest gains than 2013 and 2014 did, but I see no bear market in U.S. stocks. At least not this year.

Klikni za razširitev